The real dilemma today might be which ace(s) to pay up for. Early, you have Mashario Tanaka (vs. Royals), Jose Berrios (@ Orioles), Corey Kluber (vs. Braves), and Jameson Taillon (vs. Giants) [and Zack Greinke (@ Cubs) and Yu Darvish (vs. D-backs), if you still count them]. Max Scherzer (@ Marlins) and Charlie Morton (vs. Red Sox) start at 6:10 p.m. ET, so you’ll need to be in an all-day or a turbo contest to use them. Gerrit Cole (@ Rangers), Aaron Nola (@ Rockies), and Luis Castillo (@ Padres) start in the evening.
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We wrote this yesterday, but since the game was rained out, we can repeat it: Corey Kluber (G1 vs. Braves) has had an uncharacteristically wild start to the season, but Atlanta has the highest BB percentage against righties this year, so if Kluber doesn’t find the strike zone, he could be in for another short outing. We’re betting on a return to form, but he’s still more boom-or-bust than usual. Similarly, Aaron Nola (@ Rockies) will be the toughest call of the day given the ballpark, but the Rockies have really struggled vs. righties this year. As we pointed out yesterday, the returns of Ryan McMahon and David Dahl – and most important, the return home to Coors Field – could change that in a hurry, but Nola is probably about as cheap as you’re ever gonna get him on FanDuel and DraftKings, so this is a good opportunity to be contrarian and take an SP in Colorado.
Other guys falling into the boom-or-bust category are Zack Greinke (@ Cubs), Yu Darvish (vs. D-backs), and Hyun-jin Ryu (@ Brewers). If you’re looking to spend down and fade the top guys, Derek Holland (@ Pirates), who’s been striking out a lot of guys this year, has an optimal matchup, and Eric Lauer (vs. Reds) certainly has the park factors in his favor.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings: Saturday, April 20
wRC+ is defined by Fangraphs as “[measuring] how a player’s wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.” For more on the stat, click here .
